New Zealand

Sheep numbers are estimated at 43.99 million at June 2001, down 3% on the estimate for the previous year of 45.38 million. This reflects continued land use conversions to deer, forestry and dairy (particularly in the South Island), the drought conditions, and farming policy shifts from sheep to beef. Sheep numbers are expected to fall to 39.41 million by June 2006, due to continued land use changes. Farmed deer numbers are estimated by MAF at 2.01 million, up 9% on the estimate for the previous year. By June 2006, total deer numbers are projected to rise to 3.19 million. Deer farming continues to provide a useful alternative option. Dairy cows and heifers in calf or in milk at June 2001 are estimated at 3.76 million, an increase of 5.5% from the previous season. Just over half of this increase occurred in the South Island and is largely dependent on access to irrigation. In the current 2001/02 season, the South Island is estimated to account for 23% of the national herd. The size of the national dairy herd is expected to continue to increase in the medium term, though at a decreasing rate of growth. The national milking herd is projected to be 4.15 million by June 2006. Total beef cattle numbers at June 2001 are estimated at 4.78 million, up 2.3% on the estimate for the previous year of 4.67 million. This reflects a response to increasing beef prices. At June 2006, beef cattle numbers are projected to be 4.57 million due to declining beef prices. Overall, the prospects for New Zealand cattle hide demand are good over the medium term, particularly as world GDP growth recovers.