The waiting is now nearly over

After playing a waiting game, the year is now getting underway with major trips to India, Mexico, Italy, Hong Kong and Novo Hamburgo, Brazil, occupying time and resources. There has also been plenty to discuss and much conjecture about the European decision to levy anti-dumping duties against leather shoes from China and Vietnam. This has caused a great deal of dissention accompanied by worrying news about people being thrown out of work in the footwear industries in China and Vietnam, many of them women and all of them poorly paid. Nor does the news hearten other countries who fear their own consumers being hit by huge price rises. The move does not even get the support of global giants such as ECCO and Timberland who feel they have gone to a lot of effort to adapt themselves to changed world manufacturing patterns only to have the rug pulled out from beneath their feet. And shoe makers in Europe remain unconvinced that it will help themto any great extent. In fact, the Czech industry claims to be on its knees after years of cheap imports into their domestic market and expects little to come from the new legislation. Too little too late? To add to this, German and Italian furniture manufacturers are now said to be preparing complaints to put before the EU that accuse China of selling sofas and other seating at unfairly low prices. At the moment Germany and Italy are thought to be producing about half of the EU's total output of furniture. Another antidumping complaint against China will only add to the growing tension between the two world powers. Trade relations have already been severely strained following Europe's anti-dumping regulations against Chinese textiles and footwear. The provision of trade barriers in order to protect domestic manufacturing can only ever please some of the people since retailers rely heavily on cheaper imports from Asia to remain competitive. According to French trade union body l'Union Francaise des Industries de l'Habillement, China overtook Italy as the chief source of garments to France in 2005. And alongside the anti-dumping issue, there remains the great uncertainty over how great an effect China's new import regulations affecting raw hides and skins will have on the leather industry in China. The new taxation system has been in effect since January 1 but the Lunar New Year holidays initially obscured normal trading conditions. Add to that the fact that many tanners applied successfully for new customs handbooks before the regulations came into force means that they are able to continue importing under the old system until their handbooks expire. There is some indication that tanners initially took this opportunity to up their orders for US raw hides. For the week which ended March 9 China and Hong Kong combined to take more than half of the total raw and wet-blue hides exports from the US. However, much of the hides and skins trade is holding its breath while it awaits the before, during and after sales related to the APLF in Hong Kong. And, of course, those Chinese import handbooks will expire in the not too far distant future. By the time we all meet up in Hong Kong at the end of March, many traders will already have visited their customers in their own tanneries. The tanners prefer to await the fair in the hope that prices will come down and there will be the normal ducking and diving during the show as buyers and vendors haggle over prices. Only after the show is over will some normality return to the market. So it will be interesting to find out the trade has to say for themselves. See you there? Shelagh Davy