WASDE bumps up beef forecast

16 August 2022

The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is fractionally higher than last month as higher beef and broiler forecasts are partly offset by lower pork and turkey. Beef production is raised for the second half with higher expected slaughter.

Pork production is lowered on lower third quarter slaughter.

For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher beef production. The beef forecast was raised, reflecting higher expected placements in late 2022 and the 2022 calf crop reported in the latest Cattle report. Turkey production is lowered slightly, while the pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged from last month.

The beef import forecast for 2022 is lowered on second quarter data and expectations of slower imports, largely from Oceania. Imports for 2023 are unchanged from last month. Exports are raised for both years on larger beef supplies and continued firm demand from Asian markets.

Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current price strength. This is expected to carry into early 2023 and prices were raised for the first quarter. The 2022 hog price forecast is raised on expectations of higher second-half prices, but no changes are made to 2023.

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