The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) made the upward revisions for China despite the continuing Covid turmoil because shipments in the fourth quarter of 2022 were stronger than expected.
In 2023, the economy is projected to recover and the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector is expected to revive its operations. All these factors support greater consumption and increased red meat imports.
While the October forecast laid out an upward revision of China’s pork production in 2023, from the October forecast, it turns out that domestic supplies are generally unchanged year on year. Moreover, the supply is not likely to fulfiill rebounding consumption. WASDE expects that beef imports will grow in 2023, but the pace of purchases will slow down because importers have product on hand in cold storage that that they need to move before buying more.
· 2023 global beef production is basically unchanged from the October forecast, which was 59.2 million tons. Global beef carcass prices have eased coming into 2023, but not it the United States. Still, carcass prices among major exporters are still relatively high compared to before the-pandemic. This suggests that supplies will be limited and that key markets will have firm demand.
· Global beef exports in 2023 are also also basically the same as the October forecast, which was 12.2 million tons. China’s imports will be higher thanks to the end Covid restrictions which will boost demand.
The United States, Uruguay, and Argentina are expected to have less supply available for export so WASDE expects Australia and Brazil will gain market share. The U.S. is also expected to import more beef as its production will be lower, thereby supporting more imports from Brazil and Australia.