Global protein output is expected to remain virtually unchanged in 2023, at 59.1 million tons, as declining US output offsets increases in Australia, Brazil, China, and India. This is that latest forecast report from the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

Outside of the US, beef production is expected to rise by 1% as higher global beef prices encourage more slaughter. Increased feed availability and improved pastures in Australia will support heavier carcass weights, increasing output by 10%. Brazil's output is expected to rise by 2% as packers slaughter more cattle while calf prices are lower and domestic market is stronger. 

Global exports are predicted to be up fractionally this year at 12.1 million tons.  US exports will be lower and will fully offset growth in Brazil, Australia, and India. Aside from the US, global exports are expected to be 2 percent higher.

Brazil should up its shipments to China as other Mercosur suppliers cut back. Less competition and the real’s weakness help grow Brazilian exports by an overall 4 percent. Australia’s exports should grow by 13 percent thanks to more supply and lower carcass prices, which will fuel exports to East Asia and North America. This is expected erode US market share in East Asia.

U.S. production and exports are forecast at 12.2 million tons and 1.4 million tons – lower by 5 percent and 11 percent, respectively. The FAS expects lower cattle slaughter and beef production in 2023, tightening beef volumes that can be exported. Higher Australian production at lower prices also puts a damper on the US exports forecast.